Dubai Property Price Trends in 2024

A slowdown in prices could have an impact on Dubai’s property market, according to a new analysis. It will probably cool down next year (2024). According to forecasts released by S&P Global, the industry is expected to grow by 5–7% in the coming years. “Major market disruption is not something we expect,” analysts Sapna Jagtiani and Tatjana Lescova said in their assessment of the sector. They also said, “Instead, we believe price growth may slow and even reverse with price declines not exceeding 5–10% over the next 12–18 months.”

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As per the report, while villa prices have clearly surpassed previous highs, historical overstock is driving apartment prices down to 10–20% below previous highs. Dubai’s real estate market is bucking international trends.

Pre-sales also broke an all-time high, and prices have risen at a double-digit rate every year since 2021, approaching the record. Additionally, foreign investors, including high-net-worth individuals, have helped maintain strong demand for Dubai real estate, especially luxury properties.

Similar to its resilience during the pandemic, Dubai has remained relatively unaffected by external challenges posed by a weak global economy. A diverse economy is advantageous for Dubai. There is still inflation and higher financing costs for businesses, but it has performed well since the pandemic and remains below the global average.

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As per S&P, growth in 2024–2025 will be driven by continued high growth in the hospitality, wholesale and retail, and financial services sectors. In comparison, following another strong year in 2023, real estate is expected to slow over the next 12 to 18 months.

As per the figures from the Dubai Statistics Center (as of September 2023), the population has increased by more than 2% to 3.6 million. Moreover, the number of overseas visitors continues to increase. Dubai International Airport’s passenger handling capacity in the first half of 2023 exceeded 41 million in 2019.

In just three years, Dubai is expected to fully recover and welcome 17 million tourists a year. According to analysts, as real estate prices in Dubai continue to rise, the possibility of a business cycle reversal is increasing. At the same time, analysts expect pre-sales to slow to still-healthy levels.

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